GustavoLeao

BEYOND Box-Office Projections from Deadline

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Sounds a bit like counting one's chickens before they hatch... 

I'm sure there are people at the offices of Paramount already basing the viability of another sequel based on this projection.  I wish industry analysts could, just once, stop treating movies like a day at the horse races....

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Well, its a bussiness, right ?

I think Deadline is a pretty serious site.

But maybe you're right, Sehlat. Maybe its too soon.

Gus

Edited by GustavoLeao

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Well, its a bussiness, right ?

I think Deadline is a pretty serious site.

But maybe you're right, Sehlat. Maybe its too soon.

Gus

I understand the commerce side of it, of course.   But they can't really know ahead of release exactly how much a movie is going to make on opening weekend; at least not with such certainty.    I guess I'm old enough to still remember when movies were actually allowed to breathe a bit in cinema, and develop word-of-mouth and cult followings.    These days?  It all hinges on that opening weekend, or opening weekend projection in this case...

 

 

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kenman   

Well, its a bussiness, right ?

I think Deadline is a pretty serious site.

But maybe you're right, Sehlat. Maybe its too soon.

Gus

I understand the commerce side of it, of course.   But they can't really know ahead of release exactly how much a movie is going to make on opening weekend; at least not with such certainty.    I guess I'm old enough to still remember when movies were actually allowed to breathe a bit in cinema, and develop word-of-mouth and cult followings.    These days?  It all hinges on that opening weekend, or opening weekend projection in this case...

 

 

They do these projections based off a variety of these things...pre-sales and alleged interest online and whatnot.  They aren't just saying "this is a guaranteed hit" or anything...or saying that it will have legs...they are just looking at stats and projecting what it could possibly do opening weekend.  While it is true that the opening weekend tends to be the most important these days, I am not sure what this projection has to do with that.  Every Marvel movie that comes out we get some projection of what it might do...how is this one different? 

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Well, its a bussiness, right ?

I think Deadline is a pretty serious site.

But maybe you're right, Sehlat. Maybe its too soon.

Gus

I understand the commerce side of it, of course.   But they can't really know ahead of release exactly how much a movie is going to make on opening weekend; at least not with such certainty.    I guess I'm old enough to still remember when movies were actually allowed to breathe a bit in cinema, and develop word-of-mouth and cult followings.    These days?  It all hinges on that opening weekend, or opening weekend projection in this case...

 

 

They do these projections based off a variety of these things...pre-sales and alleged interest online and whatnot.  They aren't just saying "this is a guaranteed hit" or anything...or saying that it will have legs...they are just looking at stats and projecting what it could possibly do opening weekend.  While it is true that the opening weekend tends to be the most important these days, I am not sure what this projection has to do with that.  Every Marvel movie that comes out we get some projection of what it might do...how is this one different? 

Just feels a bit like they've turned movies into an algorithm, that's all.   I see and understand the business side of it, but it's all feels so calculated and cynical sometimes...

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Kenman is quite right.

That $60M projection comes  from a lot of sources. I certainly hope it holds out as Bourne hits on 7.29 and I expect that to clean up.

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Kenman is quite right.

That $60M projection comes  from a lot of sources. I certainly hope it holds out as Bourne hits on 7.29 and I expect that to clean up.

He is, and yes, I expect Bourne to do some killer business as well; esp. with Damon returning to the role (Jeremy Renner was fine in the last one, but that whole movie felt a little like a hurried B-team effort when compared to the solid previous three).

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Hammer   

The projections for this opening are $10M lower than ST09 and STID. If it hits $400M worldwide, we'll likely see a fourth movie. 

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Well, I remember back in 2009 some people said on the news that ST09 could rival "The Dark Knight's" box-office take, though I believe that was propaganda.

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BOX OFFICE: STAR TREK BEYOND Looks Set For $60 Million Weekend After Glowing Reviews
 
With an impressive 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes, Star Trek Beyond looks set to to soar to #1 at the North America box office this weekend despite competition from a couple of other big new releases..
 

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I think the movie will absolutely make enough for more.  The property is too well known.  I don't think it will ever stop. 

However, what makes ME wonder is if we are going to get the best movie of the three, and the worst opening.

 

I don't know either, but if that is the case, then shame on Paramount.  I think the advertising for this movie has been nothing short of terrible, and that's a staple of the Abrams era.  They protect the plot so much that they don't give you much reason to be excited.  This movie could be great, it could suck, but it's two days before the premiere and I have no real clue.

 

This won't affect people like us.  But it does affect the general audience.

The real question you have to ask is "why should I see this movie?" 

"Because it's Star Trek" isn't enough for the average Joe. 

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kenman   

I don't understand what is terrible about the advertising and marketing of this movie at all. I am seeing internet ads everywhere and there are tons if TV spots airing (and I am spending more hours than usual at a TV station this weej, so you can trust me on that one). The trailers, after that bad first one, have been good...they showed me a movie that has some chaeacter stuff mixed with the action.

The view that the marmeting is terrible is entirely flawed in my opinion. 

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STAR TREK BEYOND Flying To Decent $60M: But Why Is It Lower Than INTO DARKNESS ?
 
From Deadline
 
But still we can't ignore the fact that Star Trek Beyond's opening is down close to $15M from its 2013 3-day outing (its five-day haul was $83.7M)
 

http://deadline.com/2016/07/star-trek-beyond-weekend-box-office-lower-than-star-trek-into-darkness-1201791469/

 

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kenman   

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/07/25/box-office-a-cheaper-star-trek-franchise-can-live-longer-and-be-more-prosperous/#af49b0378007

An article I wholeheartedly agree with (and a premise I've actually thought about with the new movies before).  Just lower the cost of the movies a bit, reduce the action and need for big effects extravaganza, and Trek could be Paramount's money maker yet again.  Spend less and still make considerable dough...and fans will most likely love it just as much if not more.  Take note Paramount!

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/07/25/box-office-a-cheaper-star-trek-franchise-can-live-longer-and-be-more-prosperous/#af49b0378007

An article I wholeheartedly agree with (and a premise I've actually thought about with the new movies before).  Just lower the cost of the movies a bit, reduce the action and need for big effects extravaganza, and Trek could be Paramount's money maker yet again.  Spend less and still make considerable dough...and fans will most likely love it just as much if not more.  Take note Paramount!

That was how ST movies sustained themselves through the '80s and early '90s; making lower budget movies that focused more on character than high-octane spectacle.   Worked for a long time.   I think STB (opening at #1 last week!) demonstrated something of a craving for more character interplay in action movies.   The big action moments in STB were fun of course, but they were the tail, not necessarily the dog.

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kenman   

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/07/25/box-office-a-cheaper-star-trek-franchise-can-live-longer-and-be-more-prosperous/#af49b0378007

An article I wholeheartedly agree with (and a premise I've actually thought about with the new movies before).  Just lower the cost of the movies a bit, reduce the action and need for big effects extravaganza, and Trek could be Paramount's money maker yet again.  Spend less and still make considerable dough...and fans will most likely love it just as much if not more.  Take note Paramount!

That was how ST movies sustained themselves through the '80s and early '90s; making lower budget movies that focused more on character than high-octane spectacle.   Worked for a long time.   I think STB (opening at #1 last week!) demonstrated something of a craving for more character interplay in action movies.   The big action moments in STB were fun of course, but they were the tail, not necessarily the dog.

I agree.  I think they would be better served to just lower the budget and limit the writers on how many action packed CG-heavy scenes they are allowed.  I always feel that can be good for creativity and it can help Trek continue to be a money maker for Paramount (as it always has been). 

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